Ruben's Markets Log ← all briefings
Weekly report 24–30 August 2026 · 2 min read

Weekly Markets Report — 24–30 August 2026

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first major Jackson Hole speech (28 Aug) called inflation "concerning" and said the Fed "has more work to do," flipping market expectations from rate cuts toward a real chance of a September hike (implied odds jumped ~35% → 57%). Nvidia posted a blowout Q2 FY2027 (revenue $96.2bn, +106% y/y; guided 70% FY2028 growth; stock +9%), keeping AI/tech risk appetite alive even as rate-sensitive growth names wobbled late week. Eurozone flash PMIs hit a 9-month high (led by Germany) but inflation stayed sticky (ECB's Lane: ~3% through year-end). Geopolitically: US-Canada tariff deal reduces trade risk; Gaza ceasefire called a "point of no return" risk by the US envoy; Russia-Ukraine war unresolved; China-Taiwan tensions escalating (new PRC naval base, record Taiwan defense budget). Oil ~$88-94/bbl, gold firm, USD rallied post-Warsh (EUR/USD pulled back from ~1.1676 high).

02Key levels28 Aug 2026 close

S&P 5007,711.76 (-0.25% Fri, positive week)
Nasdaq26,402.42 (-0.52%)
Dow53,559.99 (-0.02%)
Euro Stoxx 50~6,424 (-0.73%)
DAX~26,356 (+0.27%)
AEX~1,103 (-0.40%)
US 10Y4.73%, US 2Y 4.34%, Fed funds 3.50-3.75% (held since spring, hike risk priced for Sept)
Brent~$88-94/bbl, gold firm +5% over a recent week
EUR/USDpulled back from ~1.1676 high after Warsh's hawkish tone

03Portfolio implicationsRuben's ETFs: AEX index ETF, EURO STOXX 50 ETF, MSCI World ETF, S&P 500 ETF, High Dividend Yield ETF

  • Currency split matters: MSCI World ETF, S&P 500 ETF, High Dividend Yield ETF are unhedged USD — this week's dollar rally was a EUR-value tailwind for that ~60% of the portfolio (reverses if hawkish narrative fades).
  • Rate sensitivity: MSCI World ETF/S&P 500 ETF (mega-cap tech heavy) most exposed to hawkish Fed repricing; High Dividend Yield ETF (dividend/value, financials+energy tilt) most insulated; benefits from higher-for-longer rates and firm oil.
  • AEX index ETF and EURO STOXX 50 ETF (EUR-denominated, no FX effect): supported by strong eurozone PMI/German manufacturing, but capped by sticky eurozone inflation and a cautious ECB. AEX index ETF has direct ASML/chip-cycle and Shell/oil-price exposure.
  • Geopolitical tail risks (Gaza ceasefire strain, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan) not yet priced aggressively into equities but are plausible risk-off triggers, mainly via oil and semiconductor supply chains — touching several holdings at once.

04Watch next week

  • US PCE inflation + Fed speakers (confirm/deny Sept hike signal)
  • EUR/USD follow-through (direct effect on MSCI World ETF/S&P 500 ETF/High Dividend Yield ETF EUR value)
  • AI-supply-chain read-through from Nvidia earnings cycle (memory, networking, power)
  • Gaza ceasefire developments / oil price risk
  • ECB commentary following strong PMI prints