Two live geopolitical fronts moved in opposite directions this week. In the Gulf, the US-Iran conflict escalated further: CENTCOM confirmed strikes on three Iranian government-linked oil tankers near Kharg Island and Jask on 5 September, under a new "tanker for tanker" doctrine, after Iranian strikes on US Navy vessels and continued attacks on Gulf shipping. Meanwhile, US envoys Witkoff and Kushner met Putin in Moscow (4–5 Sept) then travelled to Kyiv — the highest-level US diplomatic push on Russia-Ukraine in six months — with a temporary ceasefire holding through 8 September. On the macro side, the US August jobs report blew past expectations (162,000 vs. ~55,000 consensus), reversing rate-cut hopes and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78-4.82% (highest since Nov 2023); the Fed's Sept 16-17 meeting now looks closer to a hold/hawkish lean than the cut priced in a week earlier. Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.3% (highest in ~3 years, ~90% energy-driven), with a 25bp ECB hike to 2.50% on 10 September close to consensus — Lagarde's guidance tone, not the hike, is the real risk event. AI-infrastructure earnings stayed strong (Broadcom AI revenue +221% y/y; Nvidia's ~$13bn Hugging Face acquisition), helping offset — not fully cancel — the drag from rising yields on tech multiples. Oil spiked toward $95-97/bbl (Brent) before easing; gold fell ~1-2% as the hawkish repricing hit non-yielding assets; the dollar firmed (DXY ~99.2). European gas storage sits at its lowest for early September in almost two decades — a slower-moving euro-relevant risk into winter.